Automaker Ford Motor (F) kicked the year off on the right foot, soaring to an all-time high of $25.87 on Jan. 13 amid the company’s increases efforts to establish itself as an electric vehicle (EV) competitor. The stock was last seen down 1.6% to trade at $20.34 this afternoon, putting the equity below its year-to-date breakeven level, while the 70-day moving average stepped up to contain further losses. It remains up 88.3% year-over-year, just ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings call, which is due out after the close tomorrow, Feb. 3.
Daily chart of Ford Motor stock since May 2021 with 70-day moving average
The equity has a mixed history of post-earnings reactions, finishing four of eight next-day sessions higher in the past two years, including an 8.7% pop in October. Options traders are pricing in a 9.9% swing for Ford sock this time around, which is more than double the 4.9% move the security averaged after its last eight reports, regardless of direction.
A shift in the options pits could help F move higher. This is per the equity’s 10-day put/call volume ratio over at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which sits higher than 97% of readings in its annual range. This implies a much healthier-than-usual appetite for puts in the last two weeks.
A further unwinding of pessimism amongst the brokerage bunch could provide additional tailwinds. Of the 12 analysts in coverage, seven still rate Ford stock a tepid "hold" or worse.
It’s also worth nothing that the security’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) sits at 86 out of 100. This suggests F has exceeded options traders volatility expectations in the past year.
