Pfizer Inc. (PFE, Financial) and its partner BioNTech SE (BNTX, Financial) are forecast to have the best-selling treatment in 2022, raking in nearly $30 billion for the duo’s Covid-19 vaccine, according to a report from the consulting firm Evaluate Pharma. Moderna Inc. (MRNA, Financial) will account for most of the rest of the estimated $50 billion market.
The forecasts may be on the conservative side given they were based on guidance provided by the companies in October. The ceiling is likely a lot higher because orders are expected to pour in from governments around the world.
With sales approaching $70 billion overall, Pfizer is expected to be the top drug company in 2022 in terms of revenues, well ahead of AbbVie Inc. (ABBV, Financial), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Financial) and Novartis (NVS, Financial).
Among non-pandemic related treatments, AbbVie Inc.’s (ABBV, Financial) Humira, the best-selling drug in history, is expected to hold onto the top spot, at least for another year, generating revenues of more than $20 billion. With AbbVie’s anti-rheumatic medication facing competition from biosimilars next year, Merck & Co. Inc.’s (MRK, Financial) cancer drug Keytruda, which is forecast to have sales of just under $20 billion this year, is likely to earn the pole position in 2023.
Evaluate gives kudos to Merck for successfully broadening the use of Keytruda. Opdivo from Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY, Financial), Dupixent from Sanofi (SNY, Financial)/ Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN, Financial) and Eliquis from Bristol-Myers / Pfizer all have the distinction of making both lists: the projected top-sellers in 2022 and the biggest revenue generators during the year.
As sales of Humira decline, AbbVie has high hopes for two of its newer drugs, Rinvoq and Skyrizi, which are expected to reach combined sales of about $3.5 billion this year, although safety concerns could dampen the outlook for Rinvoq.
One notable name absent from both lists is Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY), which will take a hit when its blockbuster cancer drug Alimta loses patent protection in 2022. The saving grace for the Indianapolis-based firm is its pipeline, which earned the top two spots in the Evaluate list of top potential product launches this year. If and when the company’s Alzheimer’s treatment Donanemab and the diabetes drug Tirzepatide are green-lighted by the FDA, Lilly should be sitting pretty for the next several years.
